January 14, 2025 / Residential

Foxhole Newsletter - January 2025

The laws are changing and I'm taking a look at what the means from Los Angeles to Buffalo. In addition, we're diving into two new buyer trends, interest rates and the Austin rental market.

Los Angeles Fires Devastate Region

Three active fires in the Los Angeles area have burned over 40,000 acres, surpassing the size of San Francisco, Cal Fire reports. As many folks are trying to figure out what happens next, it could mean a number of things including (1) a significant migration to more affordable locales and/or (2) a mass exodus of insurers leaving the state, further exacerbating affordability issues in the state. Learn more. 

Buffalo Predicted as Top Housing Market

Competition among buyers in Buffalo remains fierce and is expected to continue through 2025. Zillow forecasts Buffalo as the hottest housing market in 2025, with Indianapolis, Providence, Hartford, and Philadelphia following. This trend highlights Buffalo's relative affordability and supply-demand imbalance, making it a key market for investors and buyers. The key indicator is 5 of the top 10 markets are in the “Rust Belt”, along with the largest risers in the northern parts of the “Sunbelt” like Virginia Beach and Oklahoma City. With increasing inventory in some sunbelt markets, does a Texas or Florida submarket sneak into the top 1o by the end of the year. Learn more. 

NYC Tackles Family Exodus Crisis

It was refreshing to see NYC Mayor Eric Adams acknowledge that many families leave NYC when their first baby is on the way, further stating that the city needs housing designed for growing families - which he sees as a possibility with the 'City of Yes for Families' proposal. What does it mean? With a forecast of 80,000 new housing units in 15 years. this translates into a projected increase of 2.1% more housing units. See how the rules are slated to work here

DOJ Targets Rent Pricing Scheme

The Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit against a rent pricing scheme that affects markets, including Austin, Texas. This lawsuit could reshape rent pricing strategies, impacting landlords and tenants alike, particularly in rapidly growing cities like Austin. Watch for legal proceedings and potential settlements, which may alter rent dynamics and landlords who are in the crosshairs should prepare for adjustments in pricing models. Learn more. 

U.S. Housing Market Crisis Insights

The U.S. housing market faces a crisis fueled by high interest rates, limited housing stock, and regulations favoring large homes over diverse options. Here's a fantastic discussion by reporter Jerusalem Demsas, Midwest home builder Bryan DeHenau , and Econ columnist Heather Long

Housing Market Sees Two Buyer Trends

There's a tale of two buyers and until wages catch up for the lower third of the housing market, that will likely continue. While the upper income households continue to spend, the lower and middle income households continue to struggle or at least have cut back on spending. As a result, the down market/entry level homebuyer is accessing housing via the resale market and some public builders are taking dramatic steps to lure first time buyers into homeownership via tiny homes

Austin Rent Drops as Supply Surges

Local officials are starting to wake up that NIMBY tactics have an adverse effect on the community. A massive spree of apartment buildings in Texas hottest market has driven down rents in the Austin market. In fact, large increases in apartment supply have led to 19 straight months in decline of rents according to Zillow. Learn more

The Fed Takes Center Stage This Week

The Federal Reserve is set to make a pivotal decision on interest rates this week, drawing significant attention from economists and investors alike. Why does it matter? The Fed's decision will impact economic growth, borrowing costs, and consumer spending, affecting both businesses and households. Analysts are closely monitoring signals from the Fed to gauge economic stability. The Fed also adjusted its economic and interest rate projections, cutting in half to two the number of cuts in its forecast compared to the four penciled in at its September meeting.



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